Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Hurricane Henriette takes aim at San Carlos after clobbering Baja

Hurricane Henriette is due to reach mainland Mexico later today. Having weathered a few hurricanes and tropical storms in the Guaymas and San Carlos area, I do not envy what residents of the region may expect. The channeling effect of the Gulf basin can have far-reaching effects with storm surge being experienced as far north as Puerto Penasco and El Golfo de Santa Clara. This storm surge is already being reported in the San Carlos area with surge slapping into the doors in several condominium developments. Further south, reports are coming in that the surge has breached the seawalls and flooding is occurring.

Hurricane Henriette was expected to weaken significantly after it crossed into the Sea of Cortez, but it appears this was a short disturbance without lasting effect. Originally anticipated to be downgraded to tropical storm status, Henriette has retained enough strength to make landfall again as a hurricane.

Although only a category 1 hurricane, has already left 7 dead and thousands homeless after it made landfall along Los Cabos at the Southern tip of Baja, Mexico. The primarily desert regions of Baja are not as prepared to withstand hurricane forces as well as the tropical regions of the Caribbean. Caribbean hurricanes are a normal though potentially devastating part of each fall, and the flora and fauna recover quickly from such poundings. In Baja, the sandy soils saturate with water rapidly and begin to slide. Lacking dense vegetation, flash floods and mudslides can be catastrophic.

Hentiettes strength is expected to be felt for the next several days as it crosses over Sonora to the southwestern United States where flooding is expected in New Mexico and possibly Arizona. These desert regions will likely experience tremendous rainfall and flooding. Several years ago after a near-miss by a tropical storm, I remember putting my truck into 4-wheel-drive to drive through downtown Hermosillo! In several points, water was seeping around the doors and even smacking the windows.

Henriette, is expected to reach the mainland later today between Topolobampo and Bahia Kino. The specific track shows a likely landfall 25 -35 miles south of San Carlos.

Although the hurricane was disrupted as it crossed land from the Pacific to the Sea of Cortez, the Pacific system still produced winds of 75 miles (120 kilometers) per hour. The hurricane is now heading north at 12 mph and is about 70 miles from Los Mochis, Sinaloa, Mexico.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Henriette may bring storm-surge flooding to Mexico as high as 5 feet (1.5 meters) above normal levels, “dangerous battering waves,'' and 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain in mountainous areas, with the potential to cause “life-threatening flash floods and mudslides''. In response, Mexico has issued a hurricane warning from Topolobampo north to Bahia Kino and a tropical storm warning along the east coast of the Baja Peninsula from La Paz north to Loreto.

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Hurricane Henriette Warning from National Hurricane Center

HENRIETTE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO ALTATA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES...70 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 105
MILES...165 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN
MAINLAND MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

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